Energy storage battery cost decline curve

Do projected cost reductions for battery storage vary over time?

The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the suite of projected cost reductions (on a normalized basis) collected from the literature (shown in gray) as well as the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (shown in black).

Are lithium-ion battery prices falling?

The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018. That’s 41 times less. What’s promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.

Are battery storage costs based on long-term planning models?

Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities. This work documents the development of these projections, which are based on recent publications of storage costs.

When are battery cost projections updated?

In 2019, battery cost projections were updated based on publications that focused on utility-scale battery systems (Cole and Frazier 2019), with a 2020 update published a year later (Cole and Frazier 2020). This report updates those cost projections with data published in 2020 and early 2021.

What factors affect the cost reduction of battery cells?

Within the historical period, cost reductions resulting from cathode active materials (CAMs) prices and enhancements in specific energy of battery cells are the most cost-reducing factors, whereas the scrap rate development mechanism is concluded to be the most influential factor in the following years.

Do battery storage technologies use financial assumptions?

The battery storage technologies do not calculate levelized cost of energy (LCOE) or levelized cost of storage (LCOS) and so do not use financial assumptions. Therefore, all parameters are the same for the research and development (R&D) and Markets & Policies Financials cases.